NFL Draft books: ‘I don’t see how we’re going to win on this’ – VSiN Exclusive News – News
After a flood of money hit the NFL Draft betting market, there was a new favorite to become No. 1 overall on Monday morning. Georgia defensive end Travon Walker was present and Michigan defensive end Aidan Hutchinson was absent.
The surprise move to first place showed why so many bookmakers despise the exercise of posting quick draft numbers. For the guys behind the counter who are used to winning most of the time, the draft can seem like a dead-end proposition.
“It’s my least favorite event to book,” said Westgate SuperBook Vice President Jay Kornegay. “It’s just not a favorable event for the bookmakers. I don’t see how we’re going to win on this.
Kornegay was behind the curve, that’s how he wanted it. The Westgate did not release any prop plans until Monday afternoon after Walker and Hutchinson swapped places. Hutchinson was the favorite by most books – down to -250 – for about a month, but the SuperBook opened Walker -185 to be the first player picked on Thursday.
While books such as DraftKings, FanDuel, and William Hill aggressively kicked off the market by releasing several early props, Circa Sports played the waiting game and also opened a limited menu on Monday.
“I didn’t want to book the draft,” Circa owner Derek Stevens said between puffs of a cigarette. “How can you get excited from a book-making perspective when the best you can do is a little loss? So the worst you can do is get destroyed.
Stevens said he put the matter to a vote with his staff and the result was 3-2 in favor of his booking. With the first round scene scheduled for Thursday in Las Vegas, this event is simply too big for bookmakers to miss.
The event will also be a big disappointment for many visitors planning to get in on the action. Nevada playing rules state that all NFL Draft props that mention a player’s specific name must be removed 24 hours before the start of the first round, so most props will be removed from the board on the day. of the draft. Stevens is fine with that, he said, because there will be people in town armed with inside information.
DraftKings book director John Avello disagrees there’s a fear factor with inside information and called it a ‘big mistake’ for Nevada to impose the ban 24 hour bets.
“From what I read, there are 500,000 people coming to town, and you would think few of them would be here Wednesday afternoon in time to bet on it,” Avello said. “I’m interested to see what this event is going to look like in Vegas. Is the Strip going to be crowded?
“Why can’t you bet 10 minutes before the draft? I don’t know what Nevada sees. I don’t see any red flags.
Avello said DraftKings reserves the draft in 12 states – Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Illinois, Louisiana, Michigan, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Oregon, Tennessee, West Virginia and Wyoming – and offers in-play betting in the first round of all these states except Arizona and West Virginia.
“It will be a handful of successful bets,” Avello said. “Is this going to be a win? The draft hasn’t been profitable for us (the last two years), but hopefully it will be this year.
The Nevada Gaming Control Board first approved betting on the NFL Draft in 2017, and Kornegay is among bookmakers claiming it’s a headache because they’ve lost each of the five years.
“I don’t know how many years we’ve booked it, but we haven’t won yet,” Kornegay said. “We never questioned booking this year’s event, especially because it’s here. To be competitive, you have to offer it. But most of the games we get are based on good information from educated players, and we’re short term.
The latest information leaked on Sunday indicates the Jacksonville Jaguars are targeting Walker instead of Hutchinson with the No. 1 pick, contrary to predictions made by ESPN’s Mel Kiper Jr. and several other draft experts. This draft is more mysterious than most, so it might be a better outcome for bookmakers, but let’s hope the winning trend continues for punters.
“It’s a huge event here in Las Vegas, so you manage your liability and keep an eye on it,” Red Rock book director Chuck Esposito said. “It’s going to be the biggest show in the NFL draft, so you have to book it. We see guys moving up and down on the chart and we adjust the odds almost daily. It’s a lot of guesswork.
Aside from a few drawn-out games that I’d be surprised to win — LSU cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. will be the No. 2 pick (30-1) and No. 3 pick (100-1); the Saints to sign Liberty quarterback Malik Willis (+900) – here are my best prop bets:
— Wide receivers drafted in the first round: Over 5.5 (-165)
— Quarterbacks drafted in the first round: Under 3.5 (-175)
– Aidan Hutchinson will be the No. 2 pick (+220)
– Pittsburgh quarterback Kenny Pickett draft position: Over 10.5 (-185)
— Malik Willis (-160) drafted ahead of Kenny Pickett
– Position of Cincinnati cornerback Ahmad Gardner in the draft: under 7.5 (-200)
– Derek Stingley Jr. draft position: Under 11.5 (-150)
– USC Drake London wide receiver draft position: Over 10.5 (-110)
– Alabama wide receiver Jameson Williams draft position: Under 13.5 (-120)
– Purdue defensive end George Karlaftis Draft position: Over 18.5 (-130)
– Draft position of Iowa offensive lineman Tyler Linderbaum: Under 28.5 (-110)
– Georgia linebacker Quay Walker draft position: Under 39.5 (+105)
– Draft position of North Dakota State wide receiver Christian Watson: Under 38.5 (+115)
– Christian Watson (-110) drafted ahead of Georgia receiver George Pickens
— Mississippi quarterback Matt Corral (-104) was drafted ahead of Cincinnati quarterback Desmond Ridder